Do burglaries really rise when the clocks go back? Three years of police data for nine areas: our count, 2026-10-30

The answer first (our count [1] from police.uk street-level crime data, September 2023 to August 2026)

Measure: burglaries per day in the darker months (October to January) against the lighter months (May to August), within one mile of a point.

• In five residential areas the darker months were not reliably worse. Clapham (London): -0.7% over three years, and within 2.1% either way in each single year. Headingley (Leeds): -0.6%.
• In the three smaller areas (Moseley, Bishopston, Crookes, 8 to 45 burglaries a month) the difference swings from year to year, for example Crookes -40.8% in 2023-24 and +76.2% in 2024-25: with counts this small, single months move a lot.
• Of the nine areas with data, only Leeds city centre was higher in the darker months in all three years (+41.2%, +29.4%, +6.1%).
• Police warnings say the opposite as a rule: Hertfordshire Constabulary, autumn 2025: burglary "numbers tend to rise once the clocks go back" and "during the autumn and winter months burglars are especially active" [2]. In the areas we counted, the data does not show a dependable seasonal rise; the advice (lights on timers, doors locked) costs little either way.

Residential areas (our count [1]; per day, so February's 28 days do not count as a drop)

City centres, for contrast (our count [1]; mostly shops and offices: police "burglary" includes business premises)

| Area | Burglaries a day | Oct-Jan vs May-Aug, 3 years | Sep 2023-Aug 2024 | Sep 2024-Aug 2025 | Sep 2025-Aug 2026 | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | London (Westminster) | 3.77 | +9.3% | -11.0% | +16.9% | +28.9% | | Birmingham | 1.44 | +2.9% | -6.0% | +1.3% | +18.6% | | Leeds | 2.16 | +26.2% | +41.2% | +29.4% | +6.1% | | Bristol | 2.02 | +0.4% | -4.6% | +10.5% | -2.1% | Manchester city centre is left out: the police.uk data for it shows 0 or 1 burglaries in each of the 36 months, so the data is missing, not the crime. London (Westminster) shows 44 burglaries in May 2026 against 90-160 in most months; it may be a data gap and it lowers that year's summer figure.

How we counted

police.uk API, "crimes-street/burglary" for each month September 2023 to August 2026 (the 36 months the API serves on 30 October 2026), within one mile of a point: Clapham 51.4620,-0.1380; Headingley 53.8190,-1.5770; Moseley 52.4460,-1.8890; Bishopston 51.4790,-2.5930; Crookes 53.3870,-1.5100; and city centres London 51.5074,-0.1278; Leeds 53.8008,-1.5491; Birmingham 52.4862,-1.8904; Bristol 51.4545,-2.5879. Counts divided by the days in each month. Residential totals over the three years: Clapham 2,049, Headingley 1,414, Moseley 904, Bishopston 910, Crookes 791.

What this cannot tell you

• Nine areas of England, three years: not the whole country, and a different area may show a seasonal pattern.
• police.uk records the month a crime is recorded, not the hour; "dark evenings" may change WHEN in the day burglaries happen without changing how many there are.
• Recorded crime, not all crime; locations are moved to nearby "snap points" for anonymity.
• Small counts swing; a single year is weak evidence either way.

Sources

• Police.uk data API, crimes-street/burglary and crimes-street-dates: https://data.police.uk/docs/ (read 2026-10-30)
• Hitchin Nub News, "Don't fall foul of burglars this autumn, warn Hertfordshire Police", 29 October 2025, quoting Detective Superintendent Anthony Alcock: https://hitchin.nub.news/news/local-news/dont-fall-foul-of-burglars-this-autumn-warn-hertfordshire-police-277000

Voice notes for the writer

• Lead with the answer: in these residential areas the darker months were not reliably worse for burglary; Clapham was flat each year.
• Quote the police line accurately and fairly; do not call police wrong; say the data in these areas does not show a dependable rise.